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The Sky Is Falling (Again)!
Part 1: Introducing Asteroid 2001PM9
 More of this Feature
• Part 2: Apocalypse Not Quite
 
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• The Hit of the Century
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• Chicken Little: A Fable
 

By David Emery

As if we don't have enough this-worldly concerns to fret about, an email alert circulating since August 2001 has fueled fears of a possible collision between earth and a rogue asteroid — in this particular case, a newly-discovered "near-earth object" identified only as "2001PM9."  The NEO may be as large as 3/4 of a mile in diameter, the email warns, and a devastating collision could occur as soon as 2003 or 2005.

"If it hits in the ocean," continues the message, "tsunamis could reach 'global scale.'  If it hits land it could completely destroy an area the size of California."

Yes, but those are very big ifs. As it happens, on the basis of the most current data available, scientists don't expect the big space rock to collide with earth, despite the assertions in this classic example of Chicken Little alarmism:


Subject: FW: Possible earth impacting asteroid: 2001PM9

Sorry to be the one to break this news, but a new Earth Impactor Asteroid has just been announced by NEODys, and this one...

1) Is very big

2) Is on the same order of magnitude [and] impact probability as 2001AV43

3) Will possibly impact the Earth in the very near future!

Let me introduce you to Asteroid 2001PM9.

a) Discovered on August 11, 2001 and observed up until August 16th. Its orbit was computed and posted today.

b) It's Absolute Magnitude suggests it is anywhere from 530m to 1.2km in diameter...that's up to nearly 3/4 of a mile in diameter!

c) It will make a relatively close pass to within .089AU on May 10, 2003. The first possible impact date calculated and the one with the highest probability of occurring is set for June 17, 2005. If it misses Earth on that pass there are another 28 possible impact dates calculated between 2005 and 2079.

Dear Readers, following are some facts that ought to set you right back in your chair, grow you some grey hairs - or cause a certain amount of lost sleep.

If 2001PM9 impacts the Earth...

1. It will be the kind of impact event that only happens once every 25,000 to 500,000 years.

2. It will impact with a force of somewhere between 100,000 to 800,000 Megatons

3. It will be somewhere between a "Large Sub-Global Event" to a "Nominal Global Effect Threshold" Event.

4. It is estimated that an impact of this order would result in the loss of anywhere between 500,000 and 1.5 Billion lives (depending on exactly where it hit).

Ladies and Gentlemen, if and when 2001PM9 impacts the Earth...

a) If it hits in the Ocean tsunamis could reach "global scale".

b) If it hits land it could completely destroy an area the size of California

c) Could raise enough dust to affect the climate and freeze crops.

d) Create a crater up to 30 km in diameter (18 miles across).

e) Cause ozone layer destruction on a global scale.

If you worried a little about 1998OX4 and 2001AV43...be very concerned about this one.

We really need to push the button on this one (get the word out and get a lot more information).


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