The theory has found little support among historians, who dispute not only the interpretation but the premises underlying it. "This was not originally a Catholic song, no matter what you hear on the Internet," said music historian William Studwell during a 2008 interview with the Religion News Service. "Neutral reference books say this is nonsense." One dead giveaway, Studwell explained, is that the lyrics are both secular and playful. "Every religious song, every religious carol has at least depth in it, something that has some spirituality in it. This is frothy, light and frothy."
'A genuine urban myth'
Historian Gerry Bowler, author of The Encyclopedia of Christmas, called the McKellar-Stockert theory a "genuine urban myth," and explained why in an email quoted on Vocalist.org in December 2000:
There are a number of clues that give it away as a tall tale but most important is the fact that none of the supposedly secret meanings is distinctly Catholic. None of the twelve codes would have been considered anything but normal Christian orthodoxy by the Protestants which ruled England at the time, so it would not need to have been imparted clandestinely. If any of the meanings had been about the special status for Catholics accorded by Mary during her brief rule (1553-1558) or the theology of the Mass or papal monarchy, etc. then the story might be more believable. In fact "the 12 Days" is just one of a number of similar counting songs found in almost every European language.
A counting rhyme for children
Indeed, virtually every historical source going back 150 years classifies "The Twelve Days of Christmas" as a "counting rhyme" for children. One of the earliest published versions appeared in J.O. Halliwell's The Nursery Rhymes of England, 1842 edition, in which the author explained, "Each child in succession repeats the gifts of the day, and forfeits for each mistake. This accumulative process is a favorite with children; in early writers, such as Homer, the repetition of messages, etc., pleases on the same principle."
We find an example of the rhyme put to precisely this use in Thomas Hughes' 1862 novel The Ashen Faggot: A Tale of Christmas. The scene is a family gathering on Christmas Eve:
When all the raisins had been extracted and eaten, and the salt had been duly thrown into the burning spirit, and everybody had looked sufficiently green and cadaverous, a cry for forfeits arose. So the party sat down round Mabel on benches brought out from under the table, and Mabel began,"The first day of Christmas my true love sent to me a partridge and a pear-tree;
The second day of Christmas my true love sent to me two turtle-doves, a partridge, and a pear-tree;The third day of Christmas my true love sent to me three fat hens, two turtle-doves, a partridge, and a pear-tree;
The fourth day of Christmas my true love sent to me four ducks quacking, three fat hends, two turtle-doves, a partridge, and a pear-tree;
The fifth day of Christmas my true love sent to me five hares running, four ducks quacking, three fat hens, two turtle-doves, a partridge, and a pear-tree."
And so on. Each day was taken up and repeated all round; and for every breakdown (except by little Maggie, who struggled with desperately earnest round eyes to follow the rest correctly, but with very comical results), the player who made the slip was duly noted down by Mabel for a forfeit.

